Why I Don’t Think It Was Only Demand Shocks that Drove 2022-23 Inflation

From a lecture prepared for “Macroeconomic Policy” (Spring 2024): Figure 1: Output gap (black, left scale), CBO projected output gap (pink, left scale), and PCE deflator y/y inflation (teal, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA 2023Q4 advance, CBO Budget and Economic Outlook, Feb 2024, NBER, and author’s calculations. The large … Read more

Weekly mortgage demand from homebuyers is flattening as interest rates rise

Thianchai Sitthikongsak | Moment | Getty Images Mortgage demand is struggling to contend with what appears to be another upswing in interest rates. Homebuyers in particular are pulling back. Total mortgage application volume rose 3.7% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. That was all due … Read more

Mortgage demand surges more than 10% as lower interest rates lure homebuyers

Prospective home buyers visit a home for sale during an Open House in a neighborhood in Clarksburg, Maryland on September 3, 2023. Homeownership feels increasingly out of reach for younger generations of Americans, who are squeezed by student debt and childcare costs in an era of slower economic growth. The pressures come as President Joe … Read more

Mortgage demand jumps nearly 10% to start the year, even as interest rates tick up again

A “For Sale” outside a house in Hercules, California, US, on Tuesday, May 31, 2022. Homebuyers are facing a worsening affordability situation with mortgage rates hovering around the highest levels in more than a decade. David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images Mortgage rates moved a little bit higher last week, for the second … Read more

Mortgage demand down 9.4% for final week of 2023, despite recent drop in interest rates

A “For Sale” sign sits in front of a new home May 27, 2004 in Miami, Florida. Joe Raedle | Getty Images Mortgage demand ended 2023 on a sour note, despite a sharp drop in mortgage interest rates during December. Total application volume was down 9.4% for the week ended Dec. 29, compared with two … Read more

Mortgage demand slips despite drop in interest rates

House for sale with “For Sale” real estate sign in yard in spring or summer season. No people. Fstop123 | E+ | Getty Images Mortgage demand fell last week compared with the previous week, despite a continued drop in rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association‘s seasonally adjusted index.  The average contract interest rate for … Read more

Mortgage refinance demand jumps as rates fall

Homes in Hercules, California, US. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images After surging over 8% in October, mortgage rates are falling back toward 7% again, and that is jump-starting the refinance market. Last week, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) decreased to 7.17% from 7.37%, … Read more