The Inflation Surge Forecasted (Or Not)

Time for a retrospective on how the various surveys are doing on forecasting year-on-year CPI inflation. Figure 1: Actual CPI y/y inflation (bold black), U.Michigan survey (tan), NY Fed survey (blue), and Survey of Professional Forecasters (green +), all in %. November CPI is Cleveland Fed nowcast of 12/8. December U.Michigan observation is preliminary. NBER … Read more