Forecasts and Nowcasts | Econbrowser

CBO has released its Budget and Economic Outlook, with projections for GDP (based on data from early December). This is their GDP projection based on current law, compared to other forecasts (IMF, WSJ survey mean), and today’s GDPNow. Figure 1: GDP as reported (bold black), CBO (blue), WSJ (brown), IMF (light green triangles), GDPNow (2/7/2024) … Read more

Four Forecasts and Two Nowcasts

Nowcasts are outstripping forecasts. For now. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ January mean forecast (blue), CBO December projection (red), SPF median forecast (teal), FT-IGM December forecast (light green triangle, based on GDPNow for Q4), GDPNow of 1/18 (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast (red triangle), all in bn. Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 3rd release, … Read more

2024 Wall Street Forecasts For The S&P 500: Net Positive Outlook

After a bull market in 2023, let’s look at the 2024 Wall Street forecasts for the S&P 500. Overall, the 2024 S&P 500 targets range from 4,200 to 5,500, implying returns between -8.1% and +20.3% from 4,559. Obviously, anything can happen between now and the new year. In addition, plenty of economic data and corporate … Read more