Fed funds vs. Spreads in Recession Prediction

Reader Bruce Hall notes the correlation between Fed funds rate peaks and recessions, as a counterpoint to my use of spread inversions. Let’s compare peaks to inversions: Figure 1: Fed funds (blue), and 10yr-3mo Treasury spread (tan). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Treasury, Fed via FRED, NBER. Inversions and peaks precede recessions. … Read more

Guest Contribution: “The Federal Funds Rate: FOMC Projections, Policy Rules, and Futures Markets”

Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the target range for the federal funds rate (FFR) at 5.25 – 5.5 percent in its January 2024 meeting. With falling … Read more

Searching for Great Dividend Funds by Morningstar.

Morningstar did a 19-page paper that investigated the nature and the performance of the dividend-like funds in Morningstar Direct. If you are a curious investor with a strong affinity towards dividend investing, this paper should intrigue you. I will go through some of the parts that I took notice of, and if it interests you, … Read more

ATM: Mutual Funds vs. ETFs

    At the Money: Mutual Funds vs. ETFs with Dave Nadig, Financial Futurist for Vetta Fi (December 13, 2023) What’s the best instrument for your investments? Mutual funds or ETFs? On today’s edition of At the Money, Barry Ritholtz speaks to Dave Nadig about the pros and cons of these two investment vehicles. Listen … Read more