On GDP, from the Country That Brought You the Term “Potemkin Village”

From BOFIT, on 16 February 2024: PRELIMINARY FIGURES SUGGEST SURPRISINGLY ROBUST RUSSIAN GDP GROWTH IN 2023 Rosstat last week released its preliminary 2023 data, which showed that Russian GDP grew by 3.6 % in 2023. Growth was clearly higher than either international or Russian forecasters had expected. For example, the most recent forecast published by the … Read more

What GDP Figures Do Not Reveal

Janan Ganesh, an often original if not iconoclastic columnist, asked why bad governments such as populist ones don’t seem to undermine economic growth, at least in the short run (“Why Hasn’t Populism Done More Economic Harm,” Financial Times, January 23, 2024). This provides us with a good opportunity to review what GDP numbers cannot prove. … Read more

Infographic: U.S. GDP by Industry

In the GDP pie chart, who’s responsible for the biggest slice?   Questions: Are there any industries you’re surprised didn’t make the list? How might the economic health of these sectors impact your decision to save, spend, or invest? How can understanding the GDP contributions of various industries guide your career planning and educational choices? … Read more

Business Cycle Indicators including Monthly GDP

Monthly GDP, as estimated by SPGMI (formerly IHS Markit/Macroeconomic Advisers) drops 0.5% m/m (-6.3% annualized!) Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment incorporating preliminary benchmark (bold dark blue), implied level using Bloomberg consensus as of 12/4 (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in … Read more