Forecasts and Nowcasts | Econbrowser

CBO has released its Budget and Economic Outlook, with projections for GDP (based on data from early December). This is their GDP projection based on current law, compared to other forecasts (IMF, WSJ survey mean), and today’s GDPNow. Figure 1: GDP as reported (bold black), CBO (blue), WSJ (brown), IMF (light green triangles), GDPNow (2/7/2024) … Read more

Nowcasts and Alternative Output Measures

GDPNow and NY Fed nowcasts as of today: FIgure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ January survey mean forecast (blue), Bloomberg consensus (red square), GDPNow (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast (pink square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA GDP 2023Q4 advance release, WSJ January survey, Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, and author’s calculations. GDP released … Read more

Four Forecasts and Two Nowcasts

Nowcasts are outstripping forecasts. For now. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ January mean forecast (blue), CBO December projection (red), SPF median forecast (teal), FT-IGM December forecast (light green triangle, based on GDPNow for Q4), GDPNow of 1/18 (light blue square), NY Fed nowcast (red triangle), all in bn. Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 3rd release, … Read more