“The Predictive Power of the Term Spread and Financial Variables for Economic Activity across Countries”: The US

From a new paper, NBER WP No. 32084, by myself and Laurent Ferrara, out today. Abstract: In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the moments of the yield curve (or alternatively, the term spread) as a predictor of future economic activity, defined as either recessions, or industrial production growth. In this paper, we … Read more